Will college admissions be more competitive than ever for 2021-2022 high school graduates?

With application deadlines nearing for some, students and parents have shared a fear that college admissions will become more competitive as a result of the pandemic. A number of factors are contributing to this fear, such as a theoretical increase in international student applicants that were unable to attend US colleges and universities last year, and those taking “gap years” flooding the applicant pool for fall 2021 admission in hopes that the pandemic will “clear.”

On the flip side, financially-strapped families and those who don’t believe that remote learning is worth the extreme financial commitment of college might be hesitating about certain applications. They also might be more heavily considering colleges that are closer to home, to facilitate any potential future problems should another lockdown occur.

From what we’ve seen so far, despite these conflicting factors across populations of students, all indications from many colleges are that they do not expect a boom in applicants for the next couple of years. Some suggest that the reticence of certain families and the risks of others will end up with a balance in the applicant pool.

Starting from last week, some colleges have been releasing information about either the surge or decline in their admissions. According to an article in InsideHigherEd, these statistics can be explained by a variety of reasons.

In response to the crippling effect that the pandemic has had on colleges and students, the College Board has decided to make major changes to testing. Effective June 2021, the SAT optional essay and SAT subject tests will be discontinued. According to a New York Times article, “The changes to the SAT come as more and more colleges are dropping the requirement that students take the test, as well as its competitor the ACT, a trend driven in part by concerns about equity that received a boost during the pandemic.”

These decisions have been made in part to ease the administrative costs of taking the tests on a company that was hit significantly by COVID-19, as tests were cancelled and postponed. However, the main resultant is some reduction in student stress revolving around college entrance exams. With these tests discontinued, students will have more time to focus on pursuing academic success in their classes and beyond.

The College Board recognizes the extreme toll that the pandemic has taken on students, and is therefore adapting to the current landscape. But what are the ramifications of these decisions for students?

While the pandemic has taken its toll on everyone, one silver lining is the changes to core Financial Aid submission. According to a recent article in Forbes by Mark Kantrowitz, the FAFSA will be undergoing massive changes in response to the COVID-19 relief bill. According to the FAFSA Simplification Act, financial aid determination will be adapted from both the federal and institutional levels. 

However, these changes will not be coming in the near term, but rather will affect the Freshman class of 2023—current high school Sophomores. It will of course have an impact on the earlier classes as Financial Aid is required to be submitted and reviewed each year prior to a student’s college year.

Due mostly to the pandemic, nearly 75% of colleges have gone the test optional approach, many of which are extending test optional policies forward several years. The question of how important the SAT and ACT tests will be for the upcoming graduating classes has resulted in many opinions.  Is the pivot to test optional for college admission going to be a temporary or long-term situation? To predict what may happen, it is wise to take a broader historic view.

College students have long been tempted by applying Early Decision, where upon acceptance, a student agrees to attend a college or university. Early Decision is a great option to reinforce demonstrated interest for students that are very confident with their top college choice and chances of admission. College admissions also use Early Decision to get a head start filling their classes. However, with the sanitary crisis impacting college in an unprecedented way, students seem less willing to go Early Decision.

Although the Early application season is still in progress for some schools and the data is yet to be tabulated, the initial view this year is that due to the pandemic and the issues outlined, there is a continuance of the decline in both Early Decision and Early Action applications. This is also tied to the drop in student applications.  According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, applications dropped 8% through November 2nd. (Many Early applications have a deadline of November 1st).  In our area, where approximately two-thirds to three-quarters of seniors would have typically applied Early Decision to a school, the trend is that those numbers have dropped considerably.